Travel Demand Forecasts and the Evaluation of Highway Schemes Under Congested Conditions

Abstract

An equilibrium model is used to explore the relationship between traffic forecasts and highway investment benefits under changes in variables such as car ownership, economic activity and travel costs. Failure to incorporate the effects of cost changes may lead to substantial overestimation of both traffic volumes and measures of user benefits over the lifetime of a project. The implications for conventional methods of highway appraisal are considered.

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