THE ESTIMATION OF ORIGIN-DESTINATION FLOWS AND THEIR CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FROM MEASUREMENTS OF LINK VOLUMES; A COMPUTER PROGRAM

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology behind a program to produce from link volumes not only estimates for the elements of an origin-destination table, but also their confidence intervals. The origin-destination table may refer only to turning movements within an intersection or to movements within a more extensive network. The program requires as input a matrix of route choice proportions (probably to be obtained from a traffic assignment model) measurements of traffic volumes on links, and (if available) a prior estimate of the o-d table. Asymmetric confidence intervals for the fitted origin-destination movements are derived from estimated, given or assumed variances and covariances for the measurements of link volumes. The model, obtained from probability considerations, closely resembles those previously obtained from entropy maximisation and information minimisation. (Author/TRRL)

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