IMPLEMENTING TRAVEL FORECASTING WITH TRAFFIC OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES

Abstract

An travel forecasting model that has the ability to account for the ways in which the traffic system operates is described. Within the model, trip distribution, mode split, and traffic assignment are all sensitive to delays at intersections as well as delays along uncontrolled road segments. To the extent possible, delay relationships were adapted from the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). Separate relationships were included for all-way stop controlled, priority, and signalized intersections. The model was implemented as a specially modified version of the Quick Response System II (QRS II) software. The HCM signalized intersection procedures were difficult to incorporate because they result in delay/volume relationships that are nonmonotonic and discontinuous. Even with better-behaved delay relationships, it is unlikely that a unique solution could be obtained. Operational strategies can be either automatically calculated or specified by users, depending on their nature. The inclusion of operation strategies in the forecast does not greatly increase computation time, data requirements, or the needed level of user expertise. A form of elastic-demand incremental assignment could find at least one user-optimal equilibrium solution. An adaptive model can reduce dependence on base-year calibration for incorporating operational effects.

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