Demand forecasting for rural transit

Abstract

The very nature of rural areas means that passenger needs are usually met by privately owned and operated personal vehicles.The growth in private automobiles has led to increased i ndependence in rural areas for those who have access, physically and economically, to such vehicles.Overall, this has decreased the quantity demanded for public transportation while exacerbating the isolation of those dependent on such services.Demand for mobility in rural towns and areas differs from that in urban areas in that the demand is less efficiently located.The density of movement, with its attendant economies of size, IS very low.A fixed route, fixed schedule service may be feasible in some rural towns and areas With sufficient population or coordinated demand patterns.A demand-responsive service may be the only cost-effective way to accommodate the small number of riders in less populated areas.Those without access to transportation in isolated rural areas may find themselves unable to take advantage of social service programs, to receive adequate medical care; to participate in the work force, or in some other way to provide for their basic human needs.This group includes the frail elderly, youth below the driving age, the physically challenged, persons without cars, onecar families with two-car needs, those without valid driver's licenses, and people whose mental

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