A GIS-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Multi-Criteria Weights

Abstract

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a prerequisite for model building since it determines the reliability of the model through assessment of uncertainties in the simulation results. With growing interest in extending GIS to support multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, enhancing GIS-based MCDM with sensitivity analysis procedures is crucial. SA should be involved in GIS-MCDM model evaluation that tests the robustness of a model and the extent of output variation when parameters are systematically varied over a range of interest. The most common approach is based on varying criteria or their weights which represents input parameters in order to understand the model behavior and its limitations. This paper presents a novel approach of examining multi-criteria weight sensitivity of a GIS-based MCDM model. The objectives of this study are to explore the dependency of model output on input parameters, identifying criteria that are especially sensitive to weight changes and to show the impacts of changing criteria weights on the model outcomes in spatial dimension. A methodology was developed to perform simulations where the decision weights associated with all criteria used for suitability modelling were varied to investigate their relative impacts on the final results of the evaluation. A tool which incorporates SA with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within the ArcGIS environment was implemented. It permits a range of user defined simulations to be performed to quantitatively evaluate model dynamic changes, measures the

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