Price Elasticities of Travel Demand in Great Britain: A Meta-analysis

Abstract

Empirical evidence on the price elasticity of the demand for travel for Great Britain has been published in studies dating from the early 1950’s. This paper reports a meta-analysis based on 1561 elasticities collected from 155 studies conducted using British data dating between 1957 and 2009. The study forms a valuable addition to the emerging body of meta analysis research that has previously considered elasticities and values. However it is unique in the volume of evidence that is reviewed, the range of issues that are considered and inclusion of substantive numbers of results from unpublished sources. This meta-analysis covers price elasticities for travel by car, rail, bus and underground. Key features of the dataset that are described include: the sources of elasticities, the distribution of studies over time and illustration of elasticities by mode and short or long run. A meta-model is fitted using the pooled dataset and including a wide range of variables such as model type, mode, distance and other relevant explanatory variables. The resulting R2 goodness of fit of 0.524 seems reasonable given that no prior screening for outliers was applied and the disparate nature of the studies. Interpretation of the price elasticities implied by the model is given in the light of previous research and current practice. The study findings are clearly consistent with both whilst providing an added layer of insight to the evidence and a model with practical applicability.

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