AUTO OWNERSHIP AS AFFECTED BY TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES

Abstract

THE HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPED IN THIS PAPER RESULTED FROM AN ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIPS ENCOUNTERED DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODAL SPLIT MODEL IN THE PORTLAND, OREGON-VANCOUVER, WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA. DURING THE COURSE OF THAT RESEARCH, ATTENTION WAS DRAWN TO THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TRANSIT USE AND AUTO OWNERSHIP. THE RESULTING RELATIONSHIP WAS SO STRONG, THAT AUTO OWNERSHIP DOMINATED ALL OTHER FACTORS IN EXPLAINING THE TRIP-MAKING SPLIT BETWEEN AUTO AND TRANSIT TRAVEL. THUS, FOR ANY GIVEN LEVEL OF AUTO OWNERSHIP IN AN AREA, TRANSIT USE WAS, IN A SENSE, PREDETERMINED REGARDLESS OF THE QUALITY OF SERVICE. ANALYSIS OF THE VARIABLES WHICH HAD SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION BETWEEN THE RELATIVE QUALITY OF SERVICE PROVIDED TO AN AREA--TRANSIT VS. HIGHWAYS--AND THE NUMBER OF AUTOS PER DWELLING UNIT. AN AUTO OWNERSHIP ESTIMATING MODEL WAS DEVELOPED COMBINING PERSONS PER DWELLING UNIT, MEDIAN INCOME AND RELATIVE ACCESSIBILITY INTO AN ESTIMATING EQUATION FOR AUTO OWNERSHIP. THE RESULTING AUTO OWNERSHIP ESTIMATES WERE THEN EMPLOYED IN THE MODAL SPLIT MODEL TO DETERMINE TRANSIT USE FOR ANY GIVEN SYSTEM CONFIGURATION. /AUTHOR/

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