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The paper does not forecast demand but rather describes the underlying demographic trends which will condition the demand in the future. Results from the 1978 origin destination survey of over 2.6 million directional trips from home to a given point indicate that over half the trips were by car with nearly 25 per cent by public transport. However, trips by school bus and by walking remain important, especially at peak hours where these modes dominate the trips of students. The user rate of public transport depends upon age; greatest usage is by those between 20 to 24 years old and the lowest frequency is found in the age group of 65 years and older. The present demographic trend will have a significant impact on diminishing the relative demand for public transport, especially during peak hours, and will moderately raise the demand for car-passenger trips. (TRRL)
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