Designing Sustainable Cities Based on Next Generation’s Cycling Ridership Demand

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a mode to school choice model to quantitatively evaluate the impact of various bicycle services and facilities on adolescents’ mode choice behavior. Stated preference (SP) scenarios, which are specifically designed for this survey, are used to elicit preferences for bicycle facilities and infrastructure, such as bike-lanes, bicycle parking places and safety courses. The estimated mode choice model, which explicitly considers for taste heterogeneity and panel effect, is tested with data collected in different types of cities of two different countries (urban areas: Athens greater area-Greece, and Nicosia-Cyprus, rural areas: Alexandroupolis-Greece and Limassol-Cyprus, and insular area: Chios–Greece) enabling for comparisons in adolescents’ travel behavior across different geographical areas. The sample consists of 9,554 adolescent participants, while for the model estimations a total of 20,432 SP responses is used. Model estimation results show that the prevalent factors that affect bicycle choice differ across different types of cities. Bicycle choice in urban areas is most sensitive to bad weather conditions, while the most significant variable for the rural area is the percentage of the cycle way coverage on the route between home and school. Bicycle parking space availability at schoolyards and the availability of school courses regarding how to safely walk and cycle also increases the utility of the bicycle alternative for all the five areas. Finally, three policy scenarios are tested in order to investigate the modal split under various cycling to school policies.

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