FORECASTING FUTURE TRANSIT ROUTE RIDERSHIP

Abstract

This paper contains an analysis of the ridership potentials of various public transportation options for the Michigan Avenue Corridor in East Lansing (1). Ridership projections were based on: corridor population and employment growth; changes in service levels resulting from the various options; and effects of changes in gasoline price, parking costs, and increased traffic congestion. An origin-destination matrix of bus riders was derived from on-and-off counts. Differential growth rates for various sections of the corridor were developed and applied to this derived matrix to derive future bus trip interchange patterns. Elasticity factors were applied to specific trip linkages to estimate the impacts of reduced travel times for both the $0.35 fare in effect during 1979-1980, and the $0.50 fare placed in effect during June, 1981. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify the impacts of changes in gasoline costs and availability, increased traffic congestion, and changes in downtown parking policy. Ridership estimates were developed for 1985 and 2000 for five service options. The daily ridership would increase from 6,235 passengers in 1980 (with a $0.35 fare) to between 7,200 and 9,000 passengers by year 2000 for a $0.50 fare. Peak-hour one-way riders at the maximum load point would rise from 440 passengers in 1980 to 860 passengers by year 2000 depending on the service option. The ridership forecasting methods have applicability in other urban areas as well. They are particularly valuable where it is reasonable to assume that transit will retain its share of the corridor travel market (i.e., short-range forecasts). Where this is not the case, adjustments can be made to the future-year base service option before elasticity factors are applied.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 7 citations exist upstream.