Causes of travel time unreliability: a Melbourne case study

Abstract

The extent of research on public transport day-to-day travel time (TT) variability is relatively small compared to efforts directed to that of passenger cars. This is mainly due to the difficulties in data collection. In addition, public transport TT observations are not as frequent as those of passenger cars since transit vehicles have substantially longer headways between vehicles. However, with the emergence of advanced vehicle monitoring systems, the collection of a relatively large sample of required data is now feasible. This paper explores the causes of day-to-day TT variability of on-road public transport, and proposes a model to estimate travel time reliability as a function of causal factors. The paper first describes the dataset developed for this research. Section 3 describes the methodology adopted, followed by section 4 which details the results of the modelling undertaken. This includes the development of two theoretical models to estimate TT variability based on these findings. The paper concludes with a summary of key findings and suggestions for future research in this area. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E217541.

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