From 2003 through 2008 South America's terms of trade moved strongly in favour of raw materials, and commodity prices remained very high through early 2010, potentially challenging the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Three possible results of the boom are analyzed: (1) a staples- or mineral-led development strategy creating linkages to overcome the enclave effects of agro-mineral export structures; (2) a transition strategy wherein ground rents form the basis for expanding national innovation systems enabling Latin America to move beyond raw material/cheap labour export dependence; (3) a return to the nineteenth-century pattern of resource and export dependence where an agro-mineral rentier/oligopolistic elite dominates production.
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