A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING TRANSIT USAGE IN CITIES IN IOWA

Robert Lowell Carstens · Ladis H Csanyi

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Urban Transport and Accessibility Urban Transport Systems Analysis

Abstract

REASONABLY ACCURATE FORECASTS OF TRANSIT PATRONAGE AND REVENUES OFTEN ARE NEEDED FOR SOLUTIONS TO URBAN TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS. THIS STUDY DEVELOPED A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING ANNUAL TOTALS FOR PATRONAGE AND REVENUES USING THE FOLLOWING AS INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: QUANTITY OF TRANSIT SERVICE PROVIDED, AVERAGE FARE, SIZE OF CITY, AND PROPORTION OF POPULATION NOT IN THE WORKING FORCE. DATA UTILIZED IN DEVELOPING THE MODEL WERE COLLECTED FROM 13 TRANSIT OPERATIONS IN IOWA COVERING 114 ANNUAL PERIODS FROM 1955 THROUGH 1965. THE MODEL IS THUS APPLICABLE ONLY FOR COMMUNITIES IN IOWA, BUT OFFERS AN INSIGHT INTO FACTORS THAT MAY BE APPLICABLE GENERALLY FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS IN SMALL URBAN AREAS. /AUTHOR/

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