Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Abstract

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. The report draws upon a variety of sources, including published literature and unpublished perspectives based on authors’ expertise. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action. This is not intended to propose or promote particular policy actions. The U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) estimates that 18.3 billion tons of goods were moved in the United States in 2007, generating 5.4 trillion ton-miles of travel (U.S. DOT FHWA Undated). Trucks moved about 72% of all freight tonnage, accounting for 42% of all ton-miles. Rail accounted for 11% of tons moved, but 28% of ton-miles. Domestic waterborne and air freight transportation shares were considerably smaller.1 While all modes of domestic freight transportation are expected to experience significant growth in the coming decades, trucking’s share – when measured in tons and ton-miles – is projected to continue to grow at the expense of rail and waterborne freight. This reflects changes in the U.S. economy that are anticipated to favor the production and shipment of higher-value-added and time-sensitive goods, as well as an established preference among many freight shippers for using trucks to move such goods. Even as freight needs grow, more accurate demand forecasting, paired with effective policymaking, can help minimize this sector’s energy consumption and emissions. As shown in Table ES.1, increasing heavy-duty engine efficiency and emission standards and imposing low-carbon fuel standards were identified as the policy options with the greatest probability of implementation and the highest potential for energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. The assessments are based on available data, historic trends, and the authors’ professional insights on this industry.

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