INTERCITY RAIL TRAVEL MODELS

Abstract

Using a 1975 aggregate data base of 31 pairs of cities, forecasts are made of 1975-1980 rail patronage in the New York City-Buffalo corridor. A two-stage modeling process is used to estimate total city-pair volume by purpose, using gravity formulations relating annual volume to city size, government employment, and hotel and motel sales receipts. Binary logit models are then developed in which rail competes differentially with air, auto, and bus in order to avoid independent irrelevant alternatives assumptions. Rail service and terminal quality variables are included with time, cost, and frequency. The total rail share is then determined algebraically from the binary models. Pivot-point analysis is used to increase the accuracy of the forecasts. Results show that rail competes differently with each mode. Against air, the key variables are frequency and time ratios; against auto, the frequency, cost, and time ratios and terminal quality are important; against bus, train service quality, frequency ratio, and time difference are important. Elasticities of demand vary considerably by mode and distance. Forecasts show that if train, track, service, and terminal improvements are implemented as planned in the corridor over the next 5 years, 1980 link volumes will increase 58-105 percent over 1975 levels, with most diversion coming from short-distance auto trips. The net effect of this diversion will be to reduce 1980 corridor energy requirements by 9 percent over 1975. /Authors/

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