Real Knowledge Is to Know the Extent of One’s Ignorance

Abstract

Does a higher level of ignorance lead to higher subjective confidence in making stock price predictions? 150 subjects make stock price forecasts for three listed companies. A Likert scale is then used to measure how confident the subjects are that their predictions will actually come true. Additionally, the level of knowledge and experience relevant to the stock market was measured by knowledge questions. The results show that individuals with limited specialist knowledge and experience are particularly confident in their forecasts and vice versa. This finding is evident for men and is statistically highly significant, but it is not for women.

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