Preprintgold2026

The state and status of theory in psychological science

Noah N. N. van Dongen · Andreas Glöckner · Philipp Musfeld · Alexandra Sarafoglou · Denny Borsboom · Laura Francina Bringmann +19 more

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Academic and Historical Perspectives in Psychology Philosophy and History of Science Psychology Research and Bibliometrics

Abstract

Psychology’s theory problem, long noted since Meehl, persists: most theories are verbal, underspecified, and make weak predictions, so hypotheses rarely follow from theory and findings seldom constrain it. Historical empiricism and today’s incentives (novelty, significance, volume) favor flexible, low-risk, strategically vague theorizing, while reforms and training emphasize methods over theory construction and formal/computational modeling. The result is fragmented subfields, drifting constructs, and “effects” that don’t cumulate—fueling replication failures, post-hoc rationalization, and shallow applied progress. Improving epistemic design requires educating and rewarding precise, falsifiable theories.

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