Articlegreen2004

Quantifying Our Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public Budgets

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications demographic modeling and climate adaptation

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February 9, 2004 date last saved: 2/9/2004 11:00 AM date last printed: 3/16/2004 4:23 PM Quantifying Our Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public Budgets Ronald Lee Demography and Economics University of California 2232 Piedmont Ave. Berkeley, CA 94720 rlee@demog.berkeley.edu This paper was prepared for presentation at the Rand Summer Institute Gala Celebration for the NIA Centers for the Demography and Economics of Aging. Research for this paper was funded by a grant from NIA, R37-AG11761. Tim Miller made valuable contributions to the analysis. I am particularly grateful to my collaborators over the years in this work: first, Lawrence Carter and Shripad Tuljapurkar; and later, Tim Miller, Ryan Edwards, Mike Anderson, and Nan Li.

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1998How Many People Can the Earth Support?2000A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries 1981The Limits of Population Forecasting 2000Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population 1994Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low 1983The Accuracy of Population Projections 1989Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach 1998Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting

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