How to Improve the Early Stages of Decision-making on Mega-Projects?

Abstract

This paper argues that the decision-making process on mega-projects is mostly at its weakest in the early stages. Very often a solution is presented without a valid analysis of the problems. In addition, feasible alternatives are not put forward, because lobby groups work hard mobilizing support for “superior” solution. Alternatives are not only later suggested by other than the promoters, and are often whittled down to nothing. This paper presents the systems analysis methodology and strongly recommended: at an early stage alternatives are generated, ranked according to the ex-ante calculations of costs and benefits, and finally selected. This methodology is certainly not new among scientists, but in practice governments and other promoters of mega-projects seldom use this well-known approach, let alone more advanced techniques such as actor modeling, simulation and gaming, which could very well be combined with systems analysis.

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