THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING: RISK ANALYSIS AS A PHILOSOPHY OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

Abstract

The onus created by the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 to conduct simultaneously serious benefit-cost assessments and meaningful community involvement, including special interest involvement, means that forecasts have never been more essential or more exposed to the public choice dilemma. The solution lies in integrating these characteristics of contemporary forecasting into mainstream decision-support activities--using approaches such as risk analysis. Risk analysis allows the debate about transportation investments to move from the forecasting level to the policy level where compromise and action are possible. This article discusses why conventional decision-support remedies fail and how risk analysis succeeds. Examples from the field are included.

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