Uncertainty in forecasts of complex rule-based systems of travel demand: Comparative analysis of the Albatross/Feathers model system

Abstract

This paper documents the results of a comparative analysis of model uncertainty of the \nAlbatross/Feathers model system for respectively the Rotterdam region, The Netherlands and \nAntwerp region, Belgium. The assessment concerned the calculation of the coefficient of \nvariation for the daily distance travelled per person. The calculations are performed both at \nthe aggregated level and the disaggregated level (e.g. disaggregation by certain \nsocio-demographics). Results indicate that model uncertainty differs by socio-demographic \ngroups. Results of a regression analysis also indicate that in both regions uncertainty in daily \ndistance travelled per person is strongly correlated with the inverse square root of the relevant \nsocio-demographic population and the complexity of the classification, measured in terms of \nthe number of possible classes.

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