On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity

Edward S. Knotek · Saeed Zaman

22 citations0/0 files storedEconomic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Labor market dynamics and wage inequality Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

We take a closer look at the connections between wages, prices, and economic activity. We find that causal relationships between wages and prices are difficult to identify, and the ability of wages to help predict future inflation is limited. Wages appear to be useful in assessing the current state of labor markets, but they are not necessarily sufficient for thinking about where the economy and inflation are going.

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References

1999Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis 2007Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?2002Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness 2008Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve 2013Forecasting Inflation 2001Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates 2010Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility 2017Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis

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