ARE TRANSIT RIDERS BECOMING LESS SENSITIVE TO FARE INCREASES

Abstract

The Simpson-Curtin formula for measuring ridership changes resulting from fare increases, first published in 1968, has recently been confirmed in a study by Ecosometrics, Inc. However, in the wake of the 1979 energy crisis, some observers noted that the impact of fare increases on ridership was less than expected. Examined in this paper is the hypothesis that transit riders have become less sensitive to fare increases in the post-energy crisis period. One hundred seventy-nine instances of fare changes between 1979 and 1982 are analyzed. Several measures of elasticity are calculated, and results are broken down by region, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) size, year, level of original fare, bus and rail systems, and type of fare change. Results indicate that the hypothesis must be rejected. This conclusion supports the assumption implicit in transportation planning that measures of travel behavior are stable over time and have positive implications for current work on disaggregate elasticities.

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