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The most recent National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF) (Department of Transport, 1989) predict an increase in per capita car ownership for Britain of between 51.6 and 71.3 per cent over the period 1990 to 2025.l Car use is predicted to increase by between 71.7 and 112.7 per cent over the same period. Since current levels of car ownership and use already contribute towards significant road traffic congestion costs, as well as other external costs (Pearce, 1993), these forecasts imply serious problems in reconciling the demand for road space with its supply. Given the importance of these forecasts in deter mining transport policies, it is essential that they are as accurate as possible. This paper uses the general to specific methodology and the concept of cointegration to develop a well-specified model of per capita car ownership that produces ex post forecasts gener ally superior to those of the NRTF. The National Road Traffic Forecasts of 1980, 1984, and 1989 are based on an eclec tic approach to modelling the growth of private and commercial road traffic. A combi nation of cross-section and time-series analysis is used, and this quantitative analysis is sometimes supplemented with, or modified by, judgements based on factors such as the international experience of road traffic growth. But as Button et al. (1982, p.65) observe: Present Department of Transport forecasts ... are ad hoc. What is required is a sin gle model, incorporating simultaneously both causal and proxy variables, from which a range of forecasts would be obtained by making suitable assumptions about the likely time paths of the independent variables.
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