Integrated Transportation Scenario Planning

Abstract

Regional land use‐transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S.\nmetropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues\nto track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects\ncompleted between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of\nscenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for\nfuture growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107\nscenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables\nand vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact\ndevelopment—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill,\nmixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use‐‐could result in 25% fewer VMT\ncompared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate\nimportant methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long‐range\nregional transportation planning processes.\nThese important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by\ncontinued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land\nuse‐based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate\nimportant changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change\nand peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.\n

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