Motorization and Road Provision in Countries and Cities

Abstract

Using panel data from 50 countries and 35 urban areas (both covering a wide range of country incomes), this paper summarizes trends in motorization, road provision, and road transport service production (combining vehicles and roads). The growth of both motorization and road provision is related to incomes, land area, population density, urbanization, gasoline prices, and rail transport at the national level, and to a subset of these variables at the urban area level. The ratio of motor vehicles to roads is examined in a production function framework at both the national and urban area level. Regularities are very strong across countries and urban areas and over time. Economic development increases demand for transport, reliance on cars and trucks, and road provision. At the early stage of motorization, commercial vehicles comprise a large share of the fleet; passenger transport by automobile becomes more prominent with income growth. Motorization expands at the same rate as income per capita, but the auto fleet expands more rapidly, and commercial vehicles less rapidly, than income. Both country and urban data show evidence of similar saturation levels for car and motor vehicle ownership. At the national level, road networks expand more slowly than incomes, but paved road networks expand at the same rate as incomes. Road provision appears to be quite responsive to demand nationally, much less so at the urban level. For specific urban areas, per capita road length varies with initial income level but changes little over time, showing that history or urban endowments matter. Annexation of surrounding developed area appears to play a large role in expanding urban road length. Urban areas average roughly 15 times more road length per unit area, and seven times more vehicles per kilometer of road, than countries, and a saturation level exists for urban road length per unit of area. Vehicles per kilometer of road are positively associated with income, with (proxies for) land prices, and with low gasoline prices. The authors are grateful to Chiaki Yamamoto for research assistance, and to Esra Bennathan, Kenneth

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