FORECASTING MARKETS - AN INDUSTRIAL APPLICATION

Gerhard E. Ortner

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Auction Theory and Applications Forecasting Techniques and Applications Sports Analytics and Performance

Abstract

In this paper we report about a first industrial application of an experimental stock market, which was designed to support project management decisions. People who work in a software development project were motivated to trade in simple real money double auction markets. The design of these markets was focused on the date the project should be finished and should help to aggregate privat and semi-public information on the progress of the project more quickly than conventional management techniques. Part two of this paper present a half year of trading in our experimental markets, a short analysis of the results and some final conclusions. 1 Assistant Professor at the Dep. of Managerial Economics and Industrial Organization at University of Technoloy Vienna. email:ortner@ebwnov.tuwien.ac.at, http://ebweb.tuwien.ac.at/ibwl/ 2 In cooperation with Siemens PSE (Austria) and Kumo Inc. (Canada). With special thanks to Franz Schweiger, Rudolf Siebenhofer and Erich Berger (from Siemens PSE) and Sean Morgan, Ken Kittlitz (from Kumo Inc.) for supporting this experiment.

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References

1996The Use of Knowledge in Society 1980On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets 1980On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets 1976ON THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPETITIVE STOCK MARKETS WHERE TRADES HAVE DIVERSE INFORMATION 1991Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science 1992Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market 1996Experimental Methods: A Primer for Economists.1977The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities

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