Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

Gareth W. Parry · P. W. Winter

99 citations0/0 files storedOSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information)

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Risk and Safety Analysis Probability and Statistical Research Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design

Abstract

The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed, using the event and fault-tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which are, at present, unquantifiable using either classical or Bayesian statistics. it is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events, and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 99 citations exist upstream.

Cited by

2010Interpretations of alternative uncertainty representations in a reliability and risk analysis context 2011Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty 2011Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Conceptual and computational basis 2012Industrial disasters: Extreme events, extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks 2010Uncertainty analysis using evidence theory – confronting level-1 and level-2 approaches with data availability and computational constraints 200404/03087 An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions 1982Data analysis in risk assessments 2011Dynamic risk analysis using alarm databases to improve process safety and product quality: Part II—Bayesian analysis

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.