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Philip E. Tetlock · Study
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Author
Philip E. Tetlock
58 works
· latest 2023
· 6 institutions
cluster: provisional
ORCID 0000-0002-3199-0292
Works
58 shown
Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
·
2023
·
38 authors
·
Open access
106
citations
AI and the transformation of social science research
Science
·
2023
·
6 authors
·
editorial
372
citations
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Nature Human Behaviour
·
2023
·
97 authors
·
Open access
74
citations
Adversarial Collaboration: The Next Science Reform
Springer eBooks
·
2023
·
2 authors
·
chapter
54
citations
Psychologists as Policy Advocates: The Roots of Controversy
Taylor & Francis eBooks
·
2019
·
2 authors
·
chapter
4
citations
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€
Judgment and Decision Making
·
2019
·
4 authors
·
Open access
12
citations
Expert Political Judgment
Princeton University Press eBooks
·
2017
·
1 author
·
book
278
citations
Sacred versus Pseudo-Sacred Values: How People Cope with Taboo Trade-Offs
American Economic Review
·
2017
·
3 authors
62
citations
Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments
Science
·
2017
·
3 authors
67
citations
Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments
Judgment and Decision Making
·
2016
·
3 authors
·
Open access
88
citations
Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting.
Judgment and Decision Making
·
2016
·
3 authors
·
Open access
23
citations
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition
Management Science
·
2016
·
8 authors
·
Open access
74
citations
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls
Management Science
·
2016
·
8 authors
175
citations
Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising
Frontiers in Psychology
·
2016
·
2 authors
·
Open access
21
citations
Accountability Systems and Group Norms: Balancing the Risks of Mindless Conformity and Reckless Deviation
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
·
2016
·
3 authors
34
citations
The price of not putting a price on love
Judgment and Decision Making
·
2016
·
3 authors
·
Open access
20
citations
Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science
Perspectives on Psychological Science
·
2015
·
4 authors
·
Open access
104
citations
Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions
Perspectives on Psychological Science
·
2015
·
9 authors
237
citations
The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.
Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied
·
2015
·
9 authors
187
citations
Forecasting Tournaments
Current Directions in Psychological Science
·
2014
·
3 authors
98
citations
Judging political judgment
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
·
2014
·
2 authors
·
Open access
11
citations
Political diversity will improve social psychological science
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
·
2014
·
6 authors
·
review
563
citations
Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Psychological Science
·
2014
·
13 authors
·
Open access
310
citations
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme
Decision Analysis
·
2014
·
5 authors
130
citations
Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model
International Journal of Forecasting
·
2014
·
6 authors
148
citations
Accountability and ideology: When left looks right and right looks left
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
·
2013
·
4 authors
·
Open access
87
citations
On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research
SSRN Electronic Journal
·
2013
·
2 authors
·
preprint
·
Open access
8
citations
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions
National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
·
2012
·
5 authors
·
other
74
citations
Taboo Scenarios: How to Think about the Unthinkable
California Management Review
·
2012
·
2 authors
64
citations
The Effects of Top Management Team Integrative Complexity and Decentralized Decision Making on Corporate Social Performance
Academy of Management Journal
·
2011
·
3 authors
313
citations
From the Commercial to the Communal: Reframing Taboo Trade-offs in Religious and Pharmaceutical Marketing
Journal of Consumer Research
·
2011
·
3 authors
·
Open access
111
citations
From what might have been to what must have been: Counterfactual thinking creates meaning.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
2010
·
6 authors
177
citations
Expert Political Judgment
Princeton University Press eBooks
·
2009
·
1 author
·
book
232
citations
The Promise of Prediction Markets
Science
·
2008
·
20 authors
403
citations
Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?
Choice Reviews Online
·
2006
·
1 author
·
other
1,260
citations
Expert political judgement: How good is it? How can we know?
·
2005
·
1 author
72
citations
Theoretically Framing Relational Framing
Journal of Consumer Psychology
·
2005
·
2 authors
·
Open access
17
citations
The Limits of Fungibility: Relational Schemata and the Value of Things
Journal of Consumer Research
·
2003
·
3 authors
·
Open access
142
citations
Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics
Cambridge University Press eBooks
·
2002
·
1 author
·
chapter
18
citations
Social functionalist frameworks for judgment and choice: Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors.
Psychological Review
·
2002
·
1 author
633
citations
Psychology and International Relations Theory
Annual Review of Political Science
·
2001
·
2 authors
·
review
247
citations
The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
2000
·
5 authors
1,400
citations
Prospecting for Evidence for Prospect Theory
Contemporary Psychology
·
1999
·
1 author
1
citations
Social psychology and world politics.
·
1998
·
1 author
115
citations
Losing Our Religion: On the Precariousness of Precise Normative Standards in Complex Accountability Systems
Sage eBooks
·
1998
·
1 author
·
chapter
68
citations
1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Princeton University Press eBooks
·
1997
·
2 authors
·
chapter
585
citations
Political or Politicized Psychology: Is the Distinction Worth Respecting?
Contemporary Psychology
·
1996
·
1 author
0
citations
ACCOUNTABILITY AND AUDITORS' JUDGMENTS ABOUT CONTINGENT EVENTS
Journal of Business Finance & Accounting
·
1996
·
3 authors
87
citations
Revising the value pluralism model: Incorporating social content and context postulates.
·
1996
·
3 authors
191
citations
Cognitive Structural Analysis of Political Rhetoric
Duke University Press eBooks
·
1993
·
1 author
·
chapter
29
citations
Allocating scarce resources: A contingency model of distributive justice
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
·
1992
·
2 authors
266
citations
The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward A Social Contingency Model
Advances in experimental social psychology
·
1992
·
1 author
·
chapter
925
citations
An Alternative Metaphor in the Study of Judgment and Choice: People as Politicians
Theory & Psychology
·
1991
·
1 author
129
citations
Social and cognitive strategies for coping with accountability: Conformity, complexity, and bolstering.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
1989
·
3 authors
610
citations
Accountability: A social magnifier of the dilution effect.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
1989
·
2 authors
126
citations
A value pluralism model of ideological reasoning.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
1986
·
1 author
724
citations
Pre- to postelection shifts in presidential rhetoric: Impression management or cognitive adjustment.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
·
1981
·
1 author
132
citations
A Cognitive Analysis of Japan's 1941 Decision for War
Journal of Conflict Resolution
·
1980
·
2 authors
109
citations