List of ContributorsAcknowledgments1Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives12Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes393Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations694Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences955Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis1196Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran1497Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence1718Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution1879Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory21110Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis23011Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics24712Counterfactuals, Past and Future268Commentary 1: Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences291Commentary 2: Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments296Commentary 3: Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences301Commentary 4: Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity309References317Index337
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