A MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF SERVICE FREQUENCY AND RELIABILITY ON BUS PASSENGER WAITING TIMES

Abstract

A model of bus and passenger arrivals at a bus stop is proposed. Passengers are considered to be either random arrivals or non-random arrivals whose time of arrival is planned so as to insure a given probability of catching a selected bus. Buses are modeled as having a lognormal distribution of arrival times from day to day. The impacts on expected wait time of service frequency and reliability for both random and nonrandomly arriving passengers are identified. The effects of frequency and reliability on the proportion of the user population who plan their arrival time are also explored through a small empirical study. The empirical results support the conceptual basis of the model, and indicate that it should be a useful tool for transit operators and planners. /Author/

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