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Using cognitive models to combine probability estimates
10 references·12 citing·35 second hop
Using cognitive models to combine probability estimates (2014)Using cognitive models to combine probabi…Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common…PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION (2005)PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTIONOn the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function (1999)On the Shape of the Probabili…The Probability Weighting Function (1998)The Probability Weighting Fun…Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination (1996)Overconfidence in Probability…Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Advances in prospect theory: …Judgment and decision making (1990)Judgment and decision makingExpression theory and the preference reversal phenomena. (1987)Expression theory and the pre…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Subjective Confidence as a Monitor of the Replicability of the Response (2024)Subjective Confidence as a Mo…Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds (2024)Promoting Erroneous Divergent…Promoting erroneous divergent opinions increases the wisdom of crowds (2023)Promoting erroneous divergent…Clinician-administered interviews should not be considered the ‘gold standard’ method of assessing psychological distress (2023)Clinician-administered interv…Model‐Based Wisdom of the Crowd for Sequential Decision‐Making Tasks (2021)Model‐Based Wisdom of the Cro…How the wisdom of crowds, and of the crowd within, are affected by expertise (2021)How the wisdom of crowds, and…Effects of Choice Restriction on Accuracy and User Experience in an Internet-Based Geopolitical Forecasting Task (2021)Effects of Choice Restriction…Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale? (2021)Apparent age and gender diffe…What do the experts know? Calibration, precision, and the wisdom of crowds among forensic handwriting experts (2018)What do the experts know? Cal…Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts (2016)Ensembles of Overfit and Over…Cross‐linguistic interactions influence reading development in bilinguals: a comparison between early balanced French‐Basque and Spanish‐Basque bilingual children (2015)Cross‐linguistic interactions…Call now or later? The waiting game in decision-making (2015)Call now or later? The waitin…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior (1979)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method (1998)Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality (2004)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Sniffing around oxytocin: review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy (2013)Self-evaluation of decision-making: A general Bayesian framework for metacognitive computation. (2016)Behavioral inattention (2018)Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1976)Developments in Non-Expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk (2000)Risk as feelings. (2001)Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? (1977)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles (2003)Parameter-Free Elicitation of Utility and Probability Weighting Functions (2000)Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk (2012)Choices, Values, and Frames (2013)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model (1991)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Goals as Reference Points (1999)Power, optimism, and risk‐taking (2006)Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment (2013)Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average (1998)Self-Efficacy, Motivation Constructs, and Mathematics Performance of Entering Middle School Students (1999)Trading Performance, Disposition Effect, Overconfidence, Representativeness Bias, and Experience of Emerging Market Investors (2007)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1992Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty15,457 cited
  • 1998The Probability Weighting Function1,998 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1999On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function1,393 cited
  • 2005PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION1,041 cited
  • 2012Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition679 cited
  • 1987Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena.589 cited
  • 1990Judgment and decision making510 cited
  • 1996Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination297 cited

Cited by

  • 2016Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts78 cited
  • 2015Cross‐linguistic interactions influence reading development in bilinguals: a comparison between early balanced French‐Basque and Spanish‐Basque bilingual children48 cited
  • 2023Clinician-administered interviews should not be considered the ‘gold standard’ method of assessing psychological distress46 cited
  • 2018What do the experts know? Calibration, precision, and the wisdom of crowds among forensic handwriting experts32 cited

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

  • 2021How the wisdom of crowds, and of the crowd within, are affected by expertise21 cited
  • 2024Subjective Confidence as a Monitor of the Replicability of the Response15 cited
  • 2021Model‐Based Wisdom of the Crowd for Sequential Decision‐Making Tasks13 cited
  • 2021Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale?4 cited
  • 2024Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds3 cited
  • 2015Call now or later? The waiting game in decision-making3 cited
  • 2021Effects of Choice Restriction on Accuracy and User Experience in an Internet-Based Geopolitical Forecasting Task2 cited
  • 2023Promoting erroneous divergent opinions increases the wisdom of crowds1 cited