Does climate policy need probabilities

Abstract

Summary Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a topical matter within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, user demand and the central role played by prediction in guiding policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This paper reviews three key questions: (1) why might we need probabilities of climate change? (2) what are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) how are researchers estimating probabilities? The first question is primarily analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change, but mitigation and integrated assessment are also briefly discussed. The second question explores the types and sources of uncertainties involved in estimating probabilities of climate change and how their characterisation can be controversial. For the third question, an extensive review of the literature is conducted on research that is creating the building blocks towards estimating the likelihood of climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and

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