Understanding Design Process Robustness: a Modelling Approach

Abstract

Mitigating the influence of uncertainty in design projects without sacrificing performance is challenging, but also important as it may reduce the risk of engineering projects delivering over time or budget. In this paper, we discuss process modelling and simulation as a route to understanding the impact of uncertainty and thereby understanding robustness in design processes. We focus on robustness of process duration with regard to delays in constituent tasks. Firstly, we discuss some patterns by which processes respond to uncertainty by analysing how changes to the duration of an individual task can affect the overall duration of the process. Secondly, we highlight the complexity of process robustness analysis by using a discrete-event Monte-Carlo simulation to investigate the response of a 12-task mechanical component design process to uncertainty in task durations and rework. We argue that valuable insights can be gained by exploring the process response to modifying one input variable at a time. However, due to interdependencies between variables a multivariate approach would be necessary to fully investigate process robustness.

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