Sources of schedule risk in complex system development

Abstract

Schedule risk is an important category of risk in complex system product development. This paper presents a framework that facilitates understanding schedule risk from a systems perspective. Research findings from literature and a Delphi-type survey of experienced product development managers and system engineers at a major aerospace company are synthesized into a framework characterizing sources of schedule uncertainty. The framework includes not only key uncertainty drivers but also the hypothesized or theorized relationships between them. Since risk is more than just uncertainty, consequences of schedule overruns and of schedule uncertainty itself are also discussed. This research contributes a more comprehensive, systems view to the studies of product development and risk management and to the practice of both in industry. The paper also examines potential paths for future research. © 1999, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Syst Eng 3: 129–142, 1999

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