Large Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market for Famine Born Cohorts in

Abstract

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of its worst famines in history. Birth rates plummeted during these years, but recovered imme- diately afterwards. The famine-born cohorts were relatively scarce in the marriage and labor markets. The famine also adversely aected the health of these cohorts. First, this paper provides estimates of the total eects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine aected cohorts in the rural areas of two hard hit provinces, Sichuan and Anhui. Unlike regression based methods, these causal estimates incorporates general equilibrium behavior, an important component of marital behavior. Next, the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market, the Choo Siow model, to decompose observed marital outcomes in quantity and quality eects of the famine. The structural estimates shows that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The famine- born cohort, who were relatively scarce compared with their customary spouses, did not have signi…cant above average marriage rates. The mod- est decline in educational attainment of the famine born cohort does not explain the change in spousal quality of that cohort.

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