Searching for anchoring effects in a naturalistic environment: evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market

Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which decision makers in a naturalistic environment, the Hong Kong horserace betting market, anchor their probability judgments on highly visible information and make insufficient adjustments in the light of additional data. Linear regression and conditional logit models are employed to examine the extent to which certain types of information are over-represented in market odds. The results suggest that, in contrast to much of the research on anchoring conducted in laboratories, the Hong Kong betting public do not anchor their judgements on past performances of horses, jockeys or trainers.

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