Prediction with expert advice for the Brier game

Vladimir Vovk · Fedor Zhdanov

52 citations0/0 files storedInternational Conference on Machine Learning

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Advanced Bandit Algorithms Research Sports Analytics and Performance Machine Learning and Algorithms

Abstract

We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical performance guarantee turns out to be rather tight on these data sets, especially in the case of the more extensive tennis data.

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1997A Decision-Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting 2006Prediction, Learning, and Games 1997How to use expert advice 1949Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors 1998A Game of Prediction with Expert Advice 2001Competitive On‐line Statistics 1998Sequential prediction of individual sequences under general loss functions 1999Averaging Expert Predictions

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