Professional Judgments and “Naturalistic Decision Making”

Abstract

This chapter looks at expertise from the perspective of the community of practice known as Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM). We provide an overview of the emergence of NDM, the underlying theoretical orientation, and key NDM research. We discuss the impact NDM has had on one particular domain of expert judgment, military decision making. We conclude by discussing applications and continuing research issues in NDM. Emergence of Naturalistic Decision Making The focus of NDM research is on expert practitioners trying to figure out what to do under difficult circumstances. The need to understand decision making in the context of time pressure, uncertainty, ill-defined goals, and high personal stakes was a major impetus for the emergence of NDM. The coalescence of NDM as a field of study was marked by the publication of Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (G. A. Klein, Orasanu, Calderwood, & Zsambok, 1993). Zsambok (1997) described how this publication brought together the contextual factors that defined NDM: The identification of key contextual factors that affect the way real-world decision making occurs, in contrast to their counterparts in the traditional decision research paradigm, evolved as a major contribution of the 1989 NDM conference (Orasanu & Connolly, 1993). They are: 1. Ill-structured problems (not artificial, well-structured problems). 2. Uncertain, dynamic environments (not static, simulated situations). 3. Shifting, ill-defined, or competing goals (not clear and stable goals). 4. Action/feedback loops (not one-shot decisions). 5. Time stress (as opposed to ample time for tasks). 6. High stakes (not situations devoid of true consequences for the decision maker). […]

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