Historical Perspective on Global Imbalances

Abstract

This paper takes an historical perspectives approach to the current episode of global imbalances.I consider four historical episodes which may give some indications as to whether the adjustment to U.S. current account deficit will lead to a 'benign' or 'gloomy' outlook.The episodes are: the transfer of capital in the earlier era of globalization the late nineteenth century; the interwar gold exchange standard; Bretton Woods; and the 1977-79 dollar crisis.I conclude that adjustment in earlier era of globalization has more resonance for the current imbalance than the other scenarios.

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