Projecting fertility for all countries

Abstract

This paper reviews and updates the procedures for making fertility projections. It classifies countries as pre-transitional, transitional, and post-transitional on the basis of current fertility and recent trends. Three data sets are used to analyze the trends for countries or economies in the transition stage: (a) World Bank estimates of fertility in the lastest quinquennium; (b) survey, census, and registration-based fertility estimates; and (c) World Bank estimates corresponding to the two decades immediately following initial transition. The average rate of total fertility decline across all the data is subsequently used as the medium decline pattern. Regression analysis is used to estimate the relationship between the current rate of decline in fertility and a number of socioeconomic variables. Additional analyses of fertility patterns focus on the pre- and post-transitional stages. The result of the analysis are translated into rules for projecting future fertility rates. These rules allow future fertility trends to be defined from previous trends country by country. To allow long-run projections, the rules assume that all countries eventually converge to replacement fertility.

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