The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

Roger M. Cooke

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Multi-Criteria Decision Making Delphi Technique in Research

Abstract

This responds to an "evaluation" of the classical model for structured expert judgment by Bolger and Rowe in this issue. This response references extensive expert judgment performance data in the public domain which played no role in their evaluation.

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2007TU Delft expert judgment data base 1975Delphi critique : expert opinion, forecasting, and group process 2007A study of expert overconfidence 2013Quantifying scientific uncertainty from expert judgement elicitation 1988Calibration and information in expert resolution; a classical approach 2013The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model 2007Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment

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