The Shape of Australian Real Estate Return Distributions and Comparisons to the United States

Abstract

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the Property Council of Australia database from 1985 to 1996 than normally distributed risk models. The shape of the distribution of Australian property returns is virtually indistinguishable from the shape of United States property returns in the NCREIF Property Index for the years 1980 to 1992. Australian real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, like its U.S. counterpart, but the characteristic exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time and property type. It follows that portfolio management and asset diversification techniques that rely upon finitevariance statistics are as ineffectual for the Australian real estate market as they have been found to be for the United States.

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