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The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition
16 references·0 citing·44 second hop
The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition (2011)The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting…Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior (2015)Heuristics: The Foundations o…Ecological RationalityIntelligence in the World (2012)Ecological RationalityIntelli…Heuristics (2011)HeuristicsModels of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)Models of ecological rational…Combining Forecasts (2001)Combining ForecastsCombining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999)Combining Probability Distrib…The Economics of Wagering Markets (1998)The Economics of Wagering Mar…Manuscript Preparation (1997)Manuscript PreparationSubjective probability (1995)Subjective probabilitySociological Methodology1 (1994)Sociological Methodology1The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly? (1991)The process-performance parad…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1990)Combining forecasts: A review…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score (1982)External correspondence: Deco…The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation (1979)Accuracy of Forecasting: An E…The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1963)Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods (1969)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)Principles of Forecasting (2001)Group versus individual performance: Are N + 1 heads better than one? (1982)Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1995)Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model (2003)Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure (1966)Linear models in decision making. (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)A circumplex model of affect. (1980)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristic Decision Making (2010)A BEHAVIORAL MODEL OF RATIONAL CHOICE (1955)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Heuristics made easy: An effort-reduction framework. (2008)Misinformation and Its Correction (2012)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition (1982)Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations (1988)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Agreeing to Disagree (1976)Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures (2003)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy (2014)Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research (1986)Survey Errors and Survey Costs (1989)Questions and answers in attitude surveys: Experiments on question form, wording, and context (1990)On the Nature of Reactance and its Role in Persuasive Health Communication (2005)Advancing formative measurement models (2008)Female and male antisocial trajectories: From childhood origins to adult outcomes (2008)A review of sex differences in peer relationship processes: Potential trade-offs for the emotional and behavioral development of girls and boys. (2006)Measuring personality in one minute or less: A 10-item short version of the Big Five Inventory in English and German (2006)Content Knowledge for Teaching (2008)Decision-Making Under Risk (2014)Homo Ignorans (2016)Citizens Versus the Internet: Confronting Digital Challenges With Cognitive Tools (2020)Environments That Make Us Smart (2007)Unpacking the exploration–exploitation tradeoff: A synthesis of human and animal literatures. (2015)A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems (2016)
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References

  • 1997Manuscript Preparation3,915 cited
  • 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography2,170 cited
  • 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1,969 cited
  • 1990Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography1,508 cited
  • 2002Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic.1,352 cited
  • 1999Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis824 cited
  • 2012Ecological RationalityIntelligence in the World750 cited
  • 1994Sociological Methodology1688 cited
  • 1979Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation514 cited
  • 2011Heuristics467 cited
  • 1982External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score428 cited
  • 2015Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior420 cited
  • 1998The Economics of Wagering Markets381 cited
  • 1995Subjective probability364 cited
  • 2001Combining Forecasts349 cited
  • 1991The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?340 cited

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