The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?

Abstract

A mysterious fatal disease strikes a large minority of the population. \nThe disease is incurable, but an expensive drug can keep victims alive. Congress decides that the drug should be given to those whose lives can be \nextended longest, which only a few specialists can predict. The experts work \naround the clock searching for a cure; allocating the drug is a new chore they \nwould rather avoid.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 340 citations exist upstream.