Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach beyond Gravity

Abstract

We quantified determinants of international migratory inflows to 17 Western countries and outflows from 13 of these countries between 1950 and 2007 in 77,658 observations from multiple sources using panel-data analysis techniques. To construct a quantitative model that could be useful for demographic projection, we analyzed the logarithm of the number of migrants (inflows and outflows separately) as dependent variables in relation to demographic, geographic, and social independent variables. The independent variables most influential on log inflows were demographic [log population of origin and destination and log infant mortality rate (IMR) of origin and destination] and geographic (log distance between capitals and log land area of the destination). Social and historical determinants were less influential. For log outflows from the 13 countries, the most influential independent variables were log population of origin and destination, log IMR of destination, and log distance between capitals. A young age structure in the destination was associated with lower inflows while a young age structure in the origin was associated with higher inflows. Urbanization in destination and origin increased international migration. IMR affected inflows and outflows significantly but oppositely. Being landlocked, having a common border, having the same official language, sharing a minority language, and colonial links also had statistically significant but quantitatively smaller effects on international migration. Comparisons of models with different assumed correlation structures of residuals indicated that independence was the best assumption, supporting the use of ordinary-least-squares estimation techniques to obtain point estimates of coefficients.

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