Explaining the Iraq War: counterfactual theory, logic, and evidence

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International Relations and Foreign Policy Intelligence, Security, War Strategy History and International Relations

Abstract

1. Comparative counterfactual analysis and the 2003 Iraq War 2. Leadership, political context(s) and the Iraq War 3. Democratic national security advisers 4. Domestic and congressional politics 5. American intelligence failures and miscalculations 6. Societal pressures and public opinion 7. International politics, global WMD consensus and UN power balancing 8. Hussein's mistakes, miscalculations and misperceptions 9. Summary and implications 10. Conclusion.

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References

1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 2005Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences 2000Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics 2004Politics in Time 1978Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment 2000Path dependence in historical sociology 1999HISTORICAL INSTITUTIONALISM IN COMPARATIVE POLITICS 2017Perception and Misperception in International Politics

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