Verifying the Accuracy of Land Use Models Used in Transportation and Air Quality Planning: A Case Study in the Sacramento, California Region

Abstract

This paper presents an evaluation of model error and induced demand in an integrated land use and transportation model. Model error is assessed by tests that compare forecasts to observed 2000 land use and travel data. Forecasts are also used to identify the model’s representation of induced demand, which includes change in land use and travel from new transportation capacity. The results illustrate how error tests can be used to improve the application of uncertain models in policy studies requiring absolute accuracy such as conformity and environmental impact analyses in the U.S.

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