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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities · Study

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PreprintInterpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Justin J. Wolfers2006

OA

Preprintgreen2006

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Justin J. Wolfers · Eric W. Zitzewitz

202 citations·0/0 files stored·SSRN Electronic Journal

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Sports Analytics and Performance Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Forecasting Techniques and Applications

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References

1976Agreeing to Disagree 1982Information, trade and common knowledge 1993Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race 1988Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries 1995The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory 2004Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?1996Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning 2006Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Cited by

2008Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters 2021Introduction to Urban Science 2006Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice 2009Forecasting Elections 2006Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets*2006Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

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2006Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilitiesreport · 13 shared references 2015Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversalarticle · 7 shared references 2009Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Marketspreprint · 7 shared references 2013Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefschapter · 5 shared references 2014The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?article · 5 shared references 2004Structural Incoherence and Stock Market Activityarticle · 4 shared references

Details

Year2006

Typepreprint

Published2006-01-01

VenueSSRN Electronic Journal

ISSN-L1556-5068

Languageen

Citations202

Files0 public / 0

ShelfSports Analytics and Performance

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doi10.2139/ssrn.898597

openalex_workW1538844734

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2006

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2010Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders