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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
13 references·16 citing·48 second hop
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (2006)Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as …Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney (2012)Estimating the Value of Conne…Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections (2007)Partisan Impacts on the Econo…Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets (2006)Interpreting the predictions …Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election (2005)Are policy platforms capitali…Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets? (2004)Why are Gambling Markets Orga…Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? (2004)Prediction Markets: Does Mone…How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence? (2004)How Should We Measure Consume…Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning (1996)Speculative Investor Behavior…The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory (1995)The Common Prior Assumption i…Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race (1993)Differences of Opinion Make a…Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries (1988)Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting…Information, trade and common knowledge (1982)Information, trade and common…Agreeing to Disagree (1976)Agreeing to DisagreeIntroduction to Urban Science (2021)Introduction to Urban ScienceAggregation mechanisms for crowd predictions (2019)Aggregation mechanisms for cr…Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration (2018)Brexit Uncertainty and Trade …The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter? (2014)The impact of political major…Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely (2014)Combining forecasts for elect…Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2013)Prediction Markets for Econom…MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS (2011)MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS B…Using Social Media to Predict Future Events with Agent-Based Markets (2010)Using Social Media to Predict…Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders (2010)Prediction Markets: Alternati…Forecasting Elections (2009)Forecasting ElectionsSports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters (2008)Sports forecasting: a compari…Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme? (2008)Private Investor Participatio…Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice (2006)Prediction Markets in Theory …Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections (2006)Partisan Impacts on the Econo…Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets (2006)Five Open Questions About Pre…Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets* (2006)Competing Approaches to Forec…The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity (1978)Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders (1985)Herd Behavior and Investment (1988)On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets (1980)Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading (1985)Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets (1990)What Makes Investors Trade? (2001)Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes (2003)Individualism and Momentum around the World (2010)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Choices, values, and frames. (1984)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)The Economics of Wagering Markets (1998)Personality Psychology and Economics (2011)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling (1986)The interdisciplinary study of coordination (1994)Rationalist explanations for war (1995)Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Media Bias and Reputation (2005)Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs (2006)Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade (2010)Orange Juice and Weather (1984)Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets (1988)Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices (1996)Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task (2010)Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls (2016)Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors (1977)Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market (1992)Prediction Markets (2004)Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (2006)PREDICTION MARKETS: AN EXTENDED LITERATURE REVIEW (2012)Bettors Love Skewness, Not Risk, at the Horse Track (1998)Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence (2004)OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY AND THE COUCH POTATO AUDIENCE (2005)Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football (2009)Believing what we do not believe: Acquiescence to superstitious beliefs and other powerful intuitions. (2015)Stability in Competition (1929)An Economic Theory of Democracy. (1958)Historical Presidential Betting Markets (2004)Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What? (2018)Populist Leaders and the Economy (2023)The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2024)The Effect of Short Selling on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Spot Asset Markets (2006)It's SHO Time! Short‐Sale Price Tests and Market Quality (2009)Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk (2013)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1976Agreeing to Disagree2,499 cited
  • 1982Information, trade and common knowledge1,738 cited
  • 1993Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race1,650 cited
  • 1988Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries621 cited
  • 1995The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory505 cited
  • 2004Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?377 cited
  • 1996Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning373 cited
  • 2006Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets329 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?294 cited
  • 2007Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections290 cited
  • 2005Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election231 cited
  • 2012Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney182 cited
  • 2004How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?153 cited

Cited by

  • 2008Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters190 cited
  • 2021Introduction to Urban Science147 cited

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

  • 2006Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice130 cited
  • 2009Forecasting Elections106 cited
  • 2006Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets*105 cited
  • 2006Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections85 cited
  • 2006Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets83 cited
  • 2010Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders76 cited
  • 2008Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?74 cited
  • 2014The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?55 cited
  • 2013Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting55 cited
  • 2010Using Social Media to Predict Future Events with Agent-Based Markets50 cited
  • 2011MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS48 cited
  • 2018Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration41 cited
  • 2014Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely41 cited
  • 2019Aggregation mechanisms for crowd predictions37 cited